Presidential Polling

(cue "Hail to the Chief")

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-presapp0605-31.html

Truman had the lowest ratings records, below 25% (close to 22%).

Since 1946 (Truman), six presidents have had their approval ratings precipitously drop below 50%. Three were Republican (Bush I, Bush II, and Nixon). Three were Democrats (Truman, Johnson, and Carter). A fourth Democrat showed signs of dropping, but was assassinated (Kennedy) before the approval rating could change further.

Most of the presidents that were below 50% presided over a prominant military action that lasted longer than a week: Korea (Truman), Vietnam (Johnson, Nixon), Kuwait/Iraq (Bush I), Afghanistan/Iraq (Bush II). Only Carter managed to do so without war; he did so by presiding over the oil embargos. Consider, then, that Bush has presided over both historically high oil prices and a war, and is still not the lowest rated president ever.

Look up and read Jimmy Carter's "Crisis of Confidence" speech. And don't ever, EVER, tell me history doesn't repeat itself.

Nixon ratings were actually quite good, in the high 50s or low 60s, until Watergate. Until then, his handling of Vietnam, of China, and the Soviet Union kept people not hating him the way you might think we did.

Clinton was the only president in poll history that ended higher than when he started, though Ford and Reagan were pretty close. Even Bush I left on a significant uptick. Clinton dropped some initially with the approval of NAFTA. He went up afterwards with occasional missile strikes and turning victimization to his advantage over his impeachment.

The average presidential poll approval change when a change in the office occurs is about +17%. The numbers after Truman and Nixon left office balance out the lack of change since 1988, which is 0%.

Bush II was the first president inaugurated with a lower approval rating than his outgoing predicessor.

Truman, Bush I, and Bush II all had the highest recorded poll ratings in recorded history.
Truman started at 86%, the Bushes got their ratings on the start of wars in Iraq.

Bush II is currently at about the same level that Carter and Truman were in their last years.

Only two presidents have ever had their entire presidencies polled over 50% approval for the entire time in office- Eisenhower and Kennedy.

Two effects are constant in approval changes: ratings go up following military activity, and ratings go down when "the people" are given either large social change or business is given obvious advantages.

Crude trending over the span of the data implies that respect for the office has dropped about 40 points since the start of polling.

What does all this mean?

It means that despite the president's affiliated party, the nation still knows what they like and dislike. It means that neither (or both) parties are equally effective, bad, and/or good, but there is no clear favor of one over the other. And mostly it means that America will roll along despite all the Chicken Little Pundits and Info-tainment Shock News that exist.